Since 2012, IFC researchers have operated a real-time hydrologic model to provide flood forecasts and current flood conditions. However, until this project got underway, an exhaustive evaluation of the model’s performance, considering long-term datasets of rainfall observations and discharge projections at multiple locations, was missing. The authors conducted retrospective simulations with the model, using rainfall data from 2009–16. The simulations feature a 15-minute time resolution and are compared to discharge observations of the same resolution. IFC researchers are comparing data from about 140 Iowa locations where observations are available.

Using relational databases and web-based technologies, researchers developed an IFIS-like website that displays information about the model’s performance. To further assess the model’s performance, they produced maps of several metrics, including Nash Sutcliffe efficiency, root mean squared error, mean absolute error of river stages, differences of annual peaks, ratio of hits, misses and false alarms, and timing difference. View the model here.