Our improved capability to adapt to the future changes in discharge is linked to our capability to predict the magnitude or at least the direction of these changes. For the agricultural United States Midwest, too much or too little water has severe socioeconomic impacts. Here, we focus on the Raccoon River at Van Meter, Iowa, and use a statistical approach to examine projected changes in discharge. We build on statistical models using rainfall and harvested corn and soybean acreage to explain the observed discharge variability. We then use projections of these two predictors to examine the projected discharge response.

Villarini, G., E. Scoccimarro, K.D. White, J.R. Arnold, K.E. Schilling, and J. Ghosh, Projected changes in discharge in an agricultural watershed in Iowa, Journal of the American Water Resources Association, 51(5), 1361-1371, 2015.