This study focuses on the verification of the skill of five numerical weather prediction models in forecasting AR activity over the central United States. We find that these models generally forecast AR occurrences well at short lead times, with location errors increasing from one to three decimal degrees as the lead time increases to about 1 week.

Nayak, M.A., G. Villarini, and D.A. Lavers. “On the skill of numerical weather prediction models to forecast atmospheric rivers over the central United States,” Geophysical Research Letter, 41, pp. 4354-4362, 2014.