This study addresses the uncertainty of High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPFs), which were recently appended to the operational hydrologic forecasting framework. In this study, we examine the uncertainty features of HRRR QPFs for an Iowa flooding event that occurred in September 2016. Our evaluation of HRRR QPFs is based on the conventional approach of QPF verification and the analysis of mean areal precipitation (MAP) with respect to forecast lead time.

Seo, B.-C., F. Quintero, and W.F. Krajewski, High-resolution QPF uncertainty and its implications for flood prediction: A case study for the Eastern Iowa flood of 2016, Journal of Hydrometeorology, 19(8), 1289–1304, 2018.