Here, we investigate the changes in heavy precipitation events with the Community Earth System Model (CESM) climate experiments using the scenarios consistent with the 1.5 and 2 °C temperature targets. We find that the frequency of annual heavy precipitation at a global scale increases in both 1.5 and 2 °C scenarios until around 2070, after which the magnitudes of the trend become much weaker or even negative.

Zhang, W., and G. Villarini, Extreme precipitation is highly sensitive to the magnitude of future warming, Climatic Change, 145, 249-257, 2017.